MIT World is a free and open site that provides on demand video of significant public events at MIT. Saw this amazing video recently.
People sometimes ask Montek Singh Ahluwalia questions loaded with “aspirational objectives,” such as when India will “get rid of poverty.” Few are as well equipped to respond as Ahluwalia, one of the architects of India’s breathtaking economic transformation.
The current income of an average Indian citizen is about 1/15th that of a U.S. citizen. Ahluwalia envisions increasing India’s per capita income ten fold. He sees this as a matter of “simple arithmetic.” To achieve this advance, India must sustain GDP growth of 9% a year (which corresponds to a 7%/year growth in personal income) -- for 32 years. By 2040, India’s 1.5 billion people could be living more like Americans. “Regrettably, I won’t be around to see it,” says Ahluwalia.
By 2020, though, assuming such sustained economic growth, he would be around to witness “more modest results.” Indians would double their annual income to $6,600, and the nation would be able to “provide a basic level of services to the vast majority of its population,” essentially leaving behind its problems of poverty. This kind of growth, “an extremely worthwhile objective” for India, would also leave its mark on the rest of the world. It would inspire other emerging economies, for one thing. It would also shift the balance of power in global trade, with the combined economies of India and China taking on the U.S.
So can India really achieve this kind of relentless economic progress? Ahluwalia’s not sure, but invokes the successes of Japan, Korea and China, and sees reasons for optimism. Over the past eight years, India’s averaged a 7.2% GDP growth rate, and looks likely to land on its feet after the current worldwide recession. On the other hand, the nation’s vibrant democracy (420 million voted in the most recent elections) can make agreement on economic policy and its implementation difficult. Ahluwalia is “not complaining,” but acknowledges that this kind of participative society “means we’re taking longer to get done what needs to be done.”
He sees institutional strengths that will enable India to push its development agenda forward: a sense of confidence pervades Indian society; past reforms have “unleashed tremendous energy in the private sector;” the economy has opened up to greater domestic and foreign markets; and in spite of changes in government, the general economic policies continue to evolve. Ahluwalia acknowledges that defeating poverty may not address everyone’s goals for success. The true objective for India, he believes, is “inclusive growth,” an equitable and constructive distribution of economic gains via market forces, government and public means.
Showing posts with label Future. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Future. Show all posts
Sunday, October 4, 2009
Friday, October 2, 2009
GE’s Immelt: We Actually Hire People
Here is an interview of GE CEO Immelt at a conference held by Wired.com in June 2009. He talks about the challenge of driving continuous growth and innovation in a company of GE's size as well as the impact of the financial crisis.
Thursday, June 18, 2009
Future of Global Equities Markets
Amazing conversations in this video by Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation about how a turbulent financial market combined with accelerating technologies will affect tomorrow's equity markets by three of the nation's leading market experts.
Following an introduction by Kauffman Foundation President and CEO Carl J. Schramm, the discussion is led by Harold Bradley, chief investment officer of the Kauffman Foundation, and features Duncan Niederauer, CEO of the NYSE Euronext, and Peter Bloom, managing director of General Atlantic Partners, a global growth private equity investor. The 90-minute discussion addresses current challenges in the equities markets and the trading of stocks, bonds and derivative securities in a global marketplace.
Following an introduction by Kauffman Foundation President and CEO Carl J. Schramm, the discussion is led by Harold Bradley, chief investment officer of the Kauffman Foundation, and features Duncan Niederauer, CEO of the NYSE Euronext, and Peter Bloom, managing director of General Atlantic Partners, a global growth private equity investor. The 90-minute discussion addresses current challenges in the equities markets and the trading of stocks, bonds and derivative securities in a global marketplace.
Thursday, April 30, 2009
Take Investing Back to Basics
Got this nice email from INGDirect about 'simple' investing.
Tough times and volatile markets come and go, but solid investing principles are timeless. Good advice right now and in any market: go with S.I.M.P.L.E. investing:
Step back – Take a deep breath. Everyone knows that mattresses might seem like the safest spot for your money. But historically, the stock market has provided an opportunity for long-term returns.*
Investigate, then diversify – Take advantage of free research and investing tools instead of jumping on a hot tip or trying to act fast. Remember to balance your portfolio across investments.
Max out retirement vehicles – Take full advantage of any employer match for your 401(k). Otherwise, you leave money on the table. No 401(k) available? Grab the tax-deferred benefits of an IRA.
Pay yourself first – A cliché for sure, but not as easy as it sounds. Unless you have savings automatically deducted from your paycheck or bank account. It's like pre-paying bills in retirement. Talk to your employer's HR department.
Live like an investor – Adopt an investing way of life by committing to the long-term view. Your saving and investing habits can even set an example for the kids in your life.
Earn rewards – Set milestones and small rewards for yourself when you "earn" it on your smart financial plan.
Even if you only follow one or two of these tips, you'll be better off than you are today. So trust yourself. Then grit your teeth and get to it.Friday, April 3, 2009
Got a great idea?
There's never been a better time to turn it into a great company. Here's a 16-step guide to help you do it right and build a bulletproof startup.
Phase One Establish a Company
Step 1. Stress-Test Your Big Idea
Step 2. Build Your Founding Team
Step 3. Draft a Business Plan
Step 4. Play the Name Game
Step 5. Incorporate Thyself
Phase Two Prototype the Product
Step 1. Stake Out Intellectual Property
Step 2. Create an Advisory Board
Step 3. Build Your Prototype
Phase Three Develop the Beta Product
Step 1. Start Staffing Up
Step 2. Assemble Your Back Office
Step 3. Launch Your Beta Test
Step 4. Revisit the Business Plan
Phase Four Launch the Product
Step 1. Build a New Board of Directors
Step 2. Develop the Sales and Marketing Plan
Step 3. Open an Office
Step 4. Hit the Market
Read the entire article by Michael V. Copeland and Om Malik on Cnn Money.
Phase One Establish a Company
Step 1. Stress-Test Your Big Idea
Step 2. Build Your Founding Team
Step 3. Draft a Business Plan
Step 4. Play the Name Game
Step 5. Incorporate Thyself
Phase Two Prototype the Product
Step 1. Stake Out Intellectual Property
Step 2. Create an Advisory Board
Step 3. Build Your Prototype
Phase Three Develop the Beta Product
Step 1. Start Staffing Up
Step 2. Assemble Your Back Office
Step 3. Launch Your Beta Test
Step 4. Revisit the Business Plan
Phase Four Launch the Product
Step 1. Build a New Board of Directors
Step 2. Develop the Sales and Marketing Plan
Step 3. Open an Office
Step 4. Hit the Market
Read the entire article by Michael V. Copeland and Om Malik on Cnn Money.
Tuesday, March 17, 2009
In God we trust; all others pay cash
Warren Buffett's annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway share-holders is a highly anticipated, market-moving event. This time he offers his views on the current economy and the business climate. (with Berkshire performance of course)
Worth a read if you have the time.
An excerpt from his letter:
"Amid this bad news, however, never forget that our country has faced far worse travails in the past. In the 20th Century alone, we dealt with two great wars (one of which we initially appeared to be losing); a dozen or so panics and recessions; virulent inflation that led to a 21.5% prime rate in 1980; and the Great Depression of the 1930s, when unemployment ranged between 15% and 25% for many years. America has had no shortage of challenges.
Without fail, however, we’ve overcome them. In the face of those obstacles – and many others – the real standard of living for Americans improved nearly seven-fold during the 1900s, while the Dow Jones Industrials rose from 66 to 11,497. Compare the record of this period with the dozens of centuries during which humans secured only tiny gains, if any, in how they lived. Though the path has not been smooth, our economic system has worked extraordinarily well over time. It has unleashed human potential as no other system has, and it will continue to do so. America’s best days lie ahead."
Read the complete text of Buffett's letter to shareholders on the Berkshire Hathaway Website.
Worth a read if you have the time.
An excerpt from his letter:
"Amid this bad news, however, never forget that our country has faced far worse travails in the past. In the 20th Century alone, we dealt with two great wars (one of which we initially appeared to be losing); a dozen or so panics and recessions; virulent inflation that led to a 21.5% prime rate in 1980; and the Great Depression of the 1930s, when unemployment ranged between 15% and 25% for many years. America has had no shortage of challenges.
Without fail, however, we’ve overcome them. In the face of those obstacles – and many others – the real standard of living for Americans improved nearly seven-fold during the 1900s, while the Dow Jones Industrials rose from 66 to 11,497. Compare the record of this period with the dozens of centuries during which humans secured only tiny gains, if any, in how they lived. Though the path has not been smooth, our economic system has worked extraordinarily well over time. It has unleashed human potential as no other system has, and it will continue to do so. America’s best days lie ahead."
Read the complete text of Buffett's letter to shareholders on the Berkshire Hathaway Website.
Thursday, March 12, 2009
Bigger Pharma
Well, the pharma industry just got bigger.
Merck's $41 billion acquisition of Schering-Plough (Link)
Though Merck & Co. has agreed to pay Schering-Plough Corp. $2.5 billion if it fails to get financing for its proposed $41 billion takeover of the rival drug maker, according to a filing with the Securities Exchange Commission.
Pfizer's takeover of Wyeth for $68 billion. (Link)
Roche's bid of a $47 billion deal with Genentech. (Link)
Another article from CNN Money on Big Pharma's new landscape.
Now, Pfizer, the world's top drug maker, and French firm Sanofi-Aventis are in the race to buy a stake in Indian Wockhardt Ltd's biotechnology business.
I guess the good thing is that economy/recession/meltdown don't seem to affect the biotech industry.
Read about the article: Biotech industry expected to grow despite global meltdown
Merck's $41 billion acquisition of Schering-Plough (Link)
Though Merck & Co. has agreed to pay Schering-Plough Corp. $2.5 billion if it fails to get financing for its proposed $41 billion takeover of the rival drug maker, according to a filing with the Securities Exchange Commission.
Pfizer's takeover of Wyeth for $68 billion. (Link)
Roche's bid of a $47 billion deal with Genentech. (Link)
Another article from CNN Money on Big Pharma's new landscape.
Now, Pfizer, the world's top drug maker, and French firm Sanofi-Aventis are in the race to buy a stake in Indian Wockhardt Ltd's biotechnology business.
I guess the good thing is that economy/recession/meltdown don't seem to affect the biotech industry.
Read about the article: Biotech industry expected to grow despite global meltdown
Sunday, October 26, 2008
Hedge Fund Manager
Andrew Lahde, manager of a small California hedge fund, Lahde Capital, burst into the spotlight last year after his one-year-old fund returned 866 percent betting against the subprime collapse.
Last month, he did the unthinkable -- he shut things down, claiming dealing with his bank counter parties had become too risky. Today, Lahde passed along his "goodbye" letter, a rollicking missive on everything from greed to economic philosophy.
Click on the CNBC link to read more.
Last month, he did the unthinkable -- he shut things down, claiming dealing with his bank counter parties had become too risky. Today, Lahde passed along his "goodbye" letter, a rollicking missive on everything from greed to economic philosophy.
Click on the CNBC link to read more.
Thursday, October 9, 2008
Debt Increase
Well, seems like the debt clock can't keep up with the recent times.
The National Debt Clock in Times Square in New York has run out of digits to record the growing figure. As a temporary fix, the dollar sign has been switched to a figure--the "1" in $10 trillion. The clock is marking the current national debt at about $10.2 trillion. Think of that.
The clock’s owners say a new model — with space for two extra digits — will be in place early next year. Now the debt clock will be able to reach the quadrillions. Hopefully, that’s not a level that will be breached any time soon.
The National Debt Clock in Times Square in New York has run out of digits to record the growing figure. As a temporary fix, the dollar sign has been switched to a figure--the "1" in $10 trillion. The clock is marking the current national debt at about $10.2 trillion. Think of that.
The clock’s owners say a new model — with space for two extra digits — will be in place early next year. Now the debt clock will be able to reach the quadrillions. Hopefully, that’s not a level that will be breached any time soon.
Thursday, July 24, 2008
Innovate
Recently came across 'Innocentive' covered in NYTimes.
InnoCentive is an online open innovation marketplace - a "problem solving" web site - that rewards smart people for good ideas. Companies and organizations (seekers) post problems (challenges) that they are unable to solve within their organization to people all over the world (solvers) who win cash prizes for resolving them. It is free to join and if your solution is chosen - you win. Awards range from $5,000 to $1,000,000.
You can use your knowledge and expertise to make a real difference and get paid for solving these problems too. Considering the vast pool of brilliant and creative people with varied expertise available to passionately solve real life problems in the world the success rate is bound to be good. I heard in the Business Week podcast that 40% of the problems are solved which is an exceptional number for the cost and resources.
Sen. John McCain of Arizona, the Republican nominee for president, has proposed that the government offer $300 million to whoever invents a battery compact enough, powerful enough and cheap enough to replace fossil fuels. (something similar to Innocentive)
To see the details of available Challenges and register with InnoCentive click here:
Join Innocentive
If you have the world's brightest minds solving your problem what more do you want?
Concepts like these will definitely help the world become a better place for all of us to live.
InnoCentive is an online open innovation marketplace - a "problem solving" web site - that rewards smart people for good ideas. Companies and organizations (seekers) post problems (challenges) that they are unable to solve within their organization to people all over the world (solvers) who win cash prizes for resolving them. It is free to join and if your solution is chosen - you win. Awards range from $5,000 to $1,000,000.
You can use your knowledge and expertise to make a real difference and get paid for solving these problems too. Considering the vast pool of brilliant and creative people with varied expertise available to passionately solve real life problems in the world the success rate is bound to be good. I heard in the Business Week podcast that 40% of the problems are solved which is an exceptional number for the cost and resources.
Sen. John McCain of Arizona, the Republican nominee for president, has proposed that the government offer $300 million to whoever invents a battery compact enough, powerful enough and cheap enough to replace fossil fuels. (something similar to Innocentive)
To see the details of available Challenges and register with InnoCentive click here:
Join Innocentive
If you have the world's brightest minds solving your problem what more do you want?
Concepts like these will definitely help the world become a better place for all of us to live.
Saturday, April 5, 2008
India then and now: Kalam's Mantra
Some views from the great man Abdul Kalam:
The Vision
"I climbed and climbed
Where is the peak, my Lord?
I ploughed and ploughed,
Where is the knowledge treasure, my Lord?
I sailed and sailed,
Where is the island of peace, my Lord?
Almighty, bless my nation
With vision and sweat resulting into happiness."
"In 1991, we were in a precarious foreign exchange reserve condition. We had to pledge our gold to maintain the minimum balance required for our imports. Inflation was high. Land lines were few and mobile phones were a luxury. The people had to wait for telephone connections for months after booking. We had to wait in long queues for the railway reservation. We had very few automobile companies and there was a large waiting list for getting the allotment for a car or scooter. The export performance from software, pharma and other industries were negligible. This was the scene in 1991.
"Today, India is in an ascending economic trajectory, with continuously rising foreign exchange reserves, moderate rate of inflation, global recognition of our technological competence, energy of 540 million youth, umbilical connectivities of 23 million people of Indian origin in various parts of the planet. India as the largest democracy in the world has the reputation for providing leadership to one billion people with multi-cultural, multi-language and multi-religious backgrounds. India has become a trillion dollar economy."
Societal needs
Kalam visualised the following distinctive profile of India to emerge by the year 2020:
1. A nation where the rural and urban divide has reduced to a thin line.
2. A nation where there is an equitable distribution and adequate access to energy and quality water.
3. A nation where agriculture, industry and service sector work together in symphony.
4. A nation where education with value system is not denied to any meritorious candidates because of societal or economic discrimination.
5. A nation which is the best destination for the most talented scholars, scientists, and investors.
6. A nation where the best of health care is available to all.
7. A nation where the governance is responsive and transparent.
8. A nation where poverty has been totally eradicated, illiteracy removed and crimes against women and children are absent and none in the society feels alienated.
9. A nation that is prosperous, healthy, secure, peaceful and happy and continues with a sustainable growth path.
10. A nation that is one of the best places to live in and is proud of its leadership.
Integrated Action for developed India
"To achieve the distinctive profile of India, we have the mission of transforming India into a developed nation. We have identified five areas where India has a core competence for integrated action:
1. Agriculture and food processing
2. Reliable electric power, transport and infrastructure for all parts of the country.
3. Education and healthcare
4. Information and communication technology
5. Self reliance in critical technologies.
"These five areas are closely inter-related and if progressed in a coordinated way, will lead to food, economic and national security."
"Our story is still unfolding. The global environment, however, needs protection and India's freedom won by suffering and sacrifice has to be alertly guarded, strengthened and expanded. Freedom and independence must be our continuing quest, and in such a manner as to accelerate our evolution as a free nation through a bold and swift development."
"The time has now arrived for India to emerge with a new vision and leadership to make our nation not only enlightened, rich and prosperous, but above all, a safe nation, invulnerable forever to invasion and infiltration across its borders and bring unity of minds."
"Economic prosperity is possible only if we adopt and practice the value system in a society, which is derived out of our civilizational heritage. For all these actions, righteousness in the heart is very essential.
"Knowledge society will emerge only by the enlightened citizens of the nation. Our challenge today, is to bring the societal transformation with value system leading to a prosperous, happy and peaceful nation. It is the responsibility of the developed and developing nations to create peaceful neighbors with inclusive growth devoid of societal imbalance."
"Make it a reality by your attitude of give, give and give of the knowledge and experience you have gained over the years. This will be the singular contribution for which our motherland will be proud of you."
The Vision
"I climbed and climbed
Where is the peak, my Lord?
I ploughed and ploughed,
Where is the knowledge treasure, my Lord?
I sailed and sailed,
Where is the island of peace, my Lord?
Almighty, bless my nation
With vision and sweat resulting into happiness."
"In 1991, we were in a precarious foreign exchange reserve condition. We had to pledge our gold to maintain the minimum balance required for our imports. Inflation was high. Land lines were few and mobile phones were a luxury. The people had to wait for telephone connections for months after booking. We had to wait in long queues for the railway reservation. We had very few automobile companies and there was a large waiting list for getting the allotment for a car or scooter. The export performance from software, pharma and other industries were negligible. This was the scene in 1991.
"Today, India is in an ascending economic trajectory, with continuously rising foreign exchange reserves, moderate rate of inflation, global recognition of our technological competence, energy of 540 million youth, umbilical connectivities of 23 million people of Indian origin in various parts of the planet. India as the largest democracy in the world has the reputation for providing leadership to one billion people with multi-cultural, multi-language and multi-religious backgrounds. India has become a trillion dollar economy."
Societal needs
Kalam visualised the following distinctive profile of India to emerge by the year 2020:
1. A nation where the rural and urban divide has reduced to a thin line.
2. A nation where there is an equitable distribution and adequate access to energy and quality water.
3. A nation where agriculture, industry and service sector work together in symphony.
4. A nation where education with value system is not denied to any meritorious candidates because of societal or economic discrimination.
5. A nation which is the best destination for the most talented scholars, scientists, and investors.
6. A nation where the best of health care is available to all.
7. A nation where the governance is responsive and transparent.
8. A nation where poverty has been totally eradicated, illiteracy removed and crimes against women and children are absent and none in the society feels alienated.
9. A nation that is prosperous, healthy, secure, peaceful and happy and continues with a sustainable growth path.
10. A nation that is one of the best places to live in and is proud of its leadership.
Integrated Action for developed India
"To achieve the distinctive profile of India, we have the mission of transforming India into a developed nation. We have identified five areas where India has a core competence for integrated action:
1. Agriculture and food processing
2. Reliable electric power, transport and infrastructure for all parts of the country.
3. Education and healthcare
4. Information and communication technology
5. Self reliance in critical technologies.
"These five areas are closely inter-related and if progressed in a coordinated way, will lead to food, economic and national security."
"Our story is still unfolding. The global environment, however, needs protection and India's freedom won by suffering and sacrifice has to be alertly guarded, strengthened and expanded. Freedom and independence must be our continuing quest, and in such a manner as to accelerate our evolution as a free nation through a bold and swift development."
"The time has now arrived for India to emerge with a new vision and leadership to make our nation not only enlightened, rich and prosperous, but above all, a safe nation, invulnerable forever to invasion and infiltration across its borders and bring unity of minds."
"Economic prosperity is possible only if we adopt and practice the value system in a society, which is derived out of our civilizational heritage. For all these actions, righteousness in the heart is very essential.
"Knowledge society will emerge only by the enlightened citizens of the nation. Our challenge today, is to bring the societal transformation with value system leading to a prosperous, happy and peaceful nation. It is the responsibility of the developed and developing nations to create peaceful neighbors with inclusive growth devoid of societal imbalance."
"Make it a reality by your attitude of give, give and give of the knowledge and experience you have gained over the years. This will be the singular contribution for which our motherland will be proud of you."
Saturday, March 29, 2008
Uneasy Calm
To summarize the current market and the sentiment:
Mergers, Fed cuts, subprime worries, mortgage woes, credit crunch, inflation, housing slump, unemployment reports, financials fall, tech stocks battered, blue chips slide, more selling rocks wall street, earnings mixed, oil climbs, dollar declines, hegde fund dissolves, foreclosures jump, outlook dissapoints... and yet some people deny recession. I love the optimism but I think it would be more beneficial to reevaluate and reconsider a lot of things related to your assets to reduce the financial pinch.
Mergers, Fed cuts, subprime worries, mortgage woes, credit crunch, inflation, housing slump, unemployment reports, financials fall, tech stocks battered, blue chips slide, more selling rocks wall street, earnings mixed, oil climbs, dollar declines, hegde fund dissolves, foreclosures jump, outlook dissapoints... and yet some people deny recession. I love the optimism but I think it would be more beneficial to reevaluate and reconsider a lot of things related to your assets to reduce the financial pinch.
Wednesday, August 22, 2007
Indian drug market to reach $20B
The Indian drug market is expected to triple in size by 2015, to $20 billion in annual sales, according to a report released Wednesday by international consulting firm McKinsey & Co.
The report said India will undergo a "significant transformation" to become one of the top 10 pharmaceutical markets in the next decade.
The country's fast-growing economy, with an enviable GDP growth of 8 percent, is expected to be a key factor in driving the pharma market. The report said that 40 percent of the projected growth can be attributed to the doubling of disposable incomes and the expansion of the Indian middle class.
In addition, improvements in medical infrastructure - like rural hospitals and clinics - would contribute to 20 percent of the projected growth, while the strengthening of health insurance within the country would contribute to 15 percent of the growth, the report said.
India is already home to of the world's most prominent makers of generic drugs - Dr. Reddy's Laboratories and Ranbaxy Laboratories which compete with U.S. based makers of name-brand drugs like Merck & Co., Inc. and Pfizer Inc.
But to fuel more growth in the Indian pharma market, the national government should lend a helping hand.
The report said India will undergo a "significant transformation" to become one of the top 10 pharmaceutical markets in the next decade.
The country's fast-growing economy, with an enviable GDP growth of 8 percent, is expected to be a key factor in driving the pharma market. The report said that 40 percent of the projected growth can be attributed to the doubling of disposable incomes and the expansion of the Indian middle class.
In addition, improvements in medical infrastructure - like rural hospitals and clinics - would contribute to 20 percent of the projected growth, while the strengthening of health insurance within the country would contribute to 15 percent of the growth, the report said.
India is already home to of the world's most prominent makers of generic drugs - Dr. Reddy's Laboratories and Ranbaxy Laboratories which compete with U.S. based makers of name-brand drugs like Merck & Co., Inc. and Pfizer Inc.
But to fuel more growth in the Indian pharma market, the national government should lend a helping hand.
Monday, August 6, 2007
BPO, KPO & PPO
You have heard about BPO (business process outsourcing) & KPO (knowledge process outsourcing), but it's time now to add a new word to your vocabulary: PPO.
Coined by Alok Aggarwal, chairman of Evalueserve Inc, PPO means person-to-person outsourcing. The US-based Aggarwal, who is the co-founder of the global research and analytics services firm, says offshoring is now beginning to go mainstream and is touching the upper class and working class alike.
If you thought the PPO market is too small and hence insignificant, Aggarwal has an answer. Individual contracts are often of low value - between $100 and $5,000 - but since the number of end consumers and small businesses is enormous, the total addressable market in the US alone easily exceeds $20 billion.
Evalueserve's research and analysis shows that between April 2006 and March 2007, the revenue from this sector was more than $250 million and it is likely to grow to over $2 billion by 2015 - a cumulative annual growth rate of around 26 per cent. The growth rate, Aggarwal says, is likely to be much more in the future as many of these PPO offshoring trends are at the beginning of their lifecycles.
According to Evalueserve, PPO services follow two business models: the direct interaction model where the individual client signs a contract directly with a vendor in a low-wage country, whose employees (tutors, admin etc) work on a full-time or a part-time basis, or as sub-contractors.
The second is the online marketplace model where the vendors providing PPO services enrol in an online marketplace by paying a monthly subscription fee plus a fixed percentage of the revenue if they win the project through this marketplace. So, when an individual client posts requirements for a new project to be conducted on the online marketplace, the marketplace communicates these opportunities to the selected vendors and freelancers and requests proposals to be delivered to the client.
The client then awards the work to the appropriate vendor depending on price (which may be on a per hour or a fixed cost basis), delivery time and a quality score provided by other clients who have been served by this vendor.
Evalueserve's research estimates that there are currently more than 90 online marketplaces on the World Wide Web and projects that they have involve over 500,000 vendors and freelance professionals who are providing these services from low-wage countries.
Click here to read the entire story
Coined by Alok Aggarwal, chairman of Evalueserve Inc, PPO means person-to-person outsourcing. The US-based Aggarwal, who is the co-founder of the global research and analytics services firm, says offshoring is now beginning to go mainstream and is touching the upper class and working class alike.
If you thought the PPO market is too small and hence insignificant, Aggarwal has an answer. Individual contracts are often of low value - between $100 and $5,000 - but since the number of end consumers and small businesses is enormous, the total addressable market in the US alone easily exceeds $20 billion.
Evalueserve's research and analysis shows that between April 2006 and March 2007, the revenue from this sector was more than $250 million and it is likely to grow to over $2 billion by 2015 - a cumulative annual growth rate of around 26 per cent. The growth rate, Aggarwal says, is likely to be much more in the future as many of these PPO offshoring trends are at the beginning of their lifecycles.
According to Evalueserve, PPO services follow two business models: the direct interaction model where the individual client signs a contract directly with a vendor in a low-wage country, whose employees (tutors, admin etc) work on a full-time or a part-time basis, or as sub-contractors.
The second is the online marketplace model where the vendors providing PPO services enrol in an online marketplace by paying a monthly subscription fee plus a fixed percentage of the revenue if they win the project through this marketplace. So, when an individual client posts requirements for a new project to be conducted on the online marketplace, the marketplace communicates these opportunities to the selected vendors and freelancers and requests proposals to be delivered to the client.
The client then awards the work to the appropriate vendor depending on price (which may be on a per hour or a fixed cost basis), delivery time and a quality score provided by other clients who have been served by this vendor.
Evalueserve's research estimates that there are currently more than 90 online marketplaces on the World Wide Web and projects that they have involve over 500,000 vendors and freelance professionals who are providing these services from low-wage countries.
Click here to read the entire story
Wednesday, January 24, 2007
Monday, January 22, 2007
Investment ideas for 2007
Fortune's list of 10 stocks to buy for 2007
(AIG) American International Group
(MO) Altria
(MSFT) Microsoft Corporation
(COP) ConocoPhillips
(GD) General Dynamics
(DO) Diamond Offshore
(JOYG) Joy Global
(JPM) J.P. Morgan Chase
(RSH) Radioshack
(LUV) Southwest Airlines
Click here to read the complete story.
Link
(AIG) American International Group
(MO) Altria
(MSFT) Microsoft Corporation
(COP) ConocoPhillips
(GD) General Dynamics
(DO) Diamond Offshore
(JOYG) Joy Global
(JPM) J.P. Morgan Chase
(RSH) Radioshack
(LUV) Southwest Airlines
Click here to read the complete story.
Link
Friday, January 19, 2007
Psychology of Trading
Quite aptly said:
"If you don’t follow the stock market,you are missing some amazing drama."
~ Mark Cuban
A lot of my friends have been asking me about investing and planning to venture into the stock market. Finally, I decided (from some inspiration from another investor friend in India) to create and start writing on this blog about my beliefs, thoughts, revulsions, speculations and judicious views since my foray into investing. This blog is for all those people who desire to invest in the stock markets but do not know where to start from and for the ones who keep wondering " I have heard of Warren Buffett". Read on and probably you shall get to know him better :)
My sincere attempt in explaining and sharing the realms and fancies associated with investing. Buying stock in a company is relatively easy once you've researched the stocks you're interested in and have a broker or brokerage account to handle your purchase. I shall try to write more about the aspects relevant to investing, surviving and the strategies in this article. However, shall definitely create another post explaining the easy part of carrying out the transaction.
The Plunge
Probably, I should start with some advice from the Australian investor.
"When buying shares, ask yourself, would you buy the whole company?"
~ Rene Rivkin
I guess this is one of the most introspective guidance one should diligently follow when investing in stocks. I guess the first question which comes up is which stocks to buy ? Don't buy the stocks only because you like the products of the companies or because some friend told you inside news about their latest offering.
To start off, my personal and sincere advice: Read websites about market talk and the advice they have to offer, tune into CNBC (Mad about Money) and start grabbing info. through magazines like Business Week and others. Once you get into the mode of understanding the stock picking rants would you finally find yourself comfortable and inquisitive to research further more before you dive in. Also, companies make up the index and the index does not drive the company stocks so think about investing into individual companies than putting in all your money into the index. Have a balanced and diverse portfolio so that if one sector goes down it does not take you with it. You should look for companies with specific dogma and stories associated to it and not for the ones who are making money because the economy is getting better.
Long term investing
"Only buy something that you'd be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years."
~ Warren Buffett
Had you put $10,000 into Berkshire Hathaway when Buffett bought control of it in 1965, you'd have more than $50 million today, compared to the just under $500,000 you'd have if you'd invested in the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index. Again, remember companies make the index and not the vice versa.
You should not be concerned with the supply and demand intricacies of the stock market. (atleast I do not understand the complexity in the financial world) You don't have to monitor your stocks and portfolio everyday every minute. According to Warren Buffett: "In the short term the market is a popularity contest; in the long term it is a weighing machine."
Studying the Sage (Warren Buffett, an excerpt from an investing article about him by Investopedia http://www.investopedia.com/articles/01/071801.asp)
'He chooses stocks solely on the basis of their overall potential as a company - he looks at each as a whole. Holding these stocks as a long-term play, he seeks not capital gain but ownership in quality companies extremely capable of generating earnings. When Buffett invests in a company, he isn't concerned with whether the market will eventually recognize its worth; he is concerned with how well that company can make money as a business.'
Though that does not mean you simply put your money in some stock and completely forget about it for 10 years.
Lose some
"You get recessions, you have stock market declines. If you don't understand that's going to happen, then you're not ready, you won't do well in the markets."
~ Peter Lynch
Don't let optimism overwhelm you here. Sometimes the economy does go through a slump and believe me even we have to bear the brunt. Hence, you should (always) generally keep a stop loss. I generally keep a stop loss of 10%. For example, if I buy stock at the price of 100$ and if it continues to drop I sell it at 90$. Also, you should be able to sense the signs of mounting trouble associated with the particular stock. Watch out for the prognosticators,benefit and pull out accordingly. Safest way to invest would be to focus on companies that serve the middle class especially in maturing economies like India and China. You should pull the trigger if you see the following:
1. Poor fundamentals (earnings, revenues and cash flow)
2. Wall Street hype (look for the trends)
3. Falling return on capital ( gauge on how a company is using the shareholder's money)
4. Bearish bond analysts (follow their cues closely; when they raise concerns, heed them)
Functioning
"When somebody buys a stock it's because they think it's going to go up and the person who sold it to them thinks it's going to go down. Somebody's wrong."
~ George Ross
History is not destined to repeat itself every time. (although it definitely repeats itself when price movement trends for equity are concerned) Hence, it is very important to have a goal and investment strategy for putting in your hard earned money. Perhaps, one of the most important thing is to be well informed about things happening around you. Look out for the oil prices, global trade, the merger mania, revenue growth of a company, housing recession, growth in jobs and incomes/wages, the annual budgets, monsoon, economic and strategic pacts, booming industry scenario, Fed cuts, inflation rates, labor markets, foreign exchange reserves, India & China, quarterly results, IPO's, global warming, emerging markets, forecasters, global outlook ,etc. And, believe you me, if you play your cards well there is always a lot of room for profit growth.
Retrospect
And finally some thoughts from the most prudent investor,
“In the business world, the rear view mirror is always clearer than the windshield.”
~ Warren Buffett
This is one of my personal favs too.
Always learn from your mistakes and continue to rectify and work on them. It is proven that you become wiser after the event however when it involves your own money you need to get it right the first time around. If you are more focussed into putting your money in international companies look out for the global economic growth and the GDP for the country as well. Try and take some time to understand the fundamentals of the company besides the regular technical analysis. Our goal is to maximize our profits and minimize (or eliminate) our losses. We should be careful and smart while putting in our money. Think big, curb your enthusiasm for recovery and backup your investment decisions with some scrutiny of the company's financial performance. Here, is a list of things what the greatest stock market investor analyzes and looks for:
1. Has the company consistently performed well?
2. Has the company avoided excess debt?
3. Are profit margins high? Are they increasing?
4. How long has the company been public?
5. Do the company's products rely on a commodity?
6. Is the stock selling at a 25% discount to its real value?
Hopefully, by now you should have the cognizance of how the markets work besides apprehending the art of investing.
I hope you start and continue to and finally go on to make a fortune with some astute investments. Feel free to mail me for any further questions, suggestions and comments.
"If you don’t follow the stock market,you are missing some amazing drama."
~ Mark Cuban
A lot of my friends have been asking me about investing and planning to venture into the stock market. Finally, I decided (from some inspiration from another investor friend in India) to create and start writing on this blog about my beliefs, thoughts, revulsions, speculations and judicious views since my foray into investing. This blog is for all those people who desire to invest in the stock markets but do not know where to start from and for the ones who keep wondering " I have heard of Warren Buffett". Read on and probably you shall get to know him better :)
My sincere attempt in explaining and sharing the realms and fancies associated with investing. Buying stock in a company is relatively easy once you've researched the stocks you're interested in and have a broker or brokerage account to handle your purchase. I shall try to write more about the aspects relevant to investing, surviving and the strategies in this article. However, shall definitely create another post explaining the easy part of carrying out the transaction.
The Plunge
Probably, I should start with some advice from the Australian investor.
"When buying shares, ask yourself, would you buy the whole company?"
~ Rene Rivkin
I guess this is one of the most introspective guidance one should diligently follow when investing in stocks. I guess the first question which comes up is which stocks to buy ? Don't buy the stocks only because you like the products of the companies or because some friend told you inside news about their latest offering.
To start off, my personal and sincere advice: Read websites about market talk and the advice they have to offer, tune into CNBC (Mad about Money) and start grabbing info. through magazines like Business Week and others. Once you get into the mode of understanding the stock picking rants would you finally find yourself comfortable and inquisitive to research further more before you dive in. Also, companies make up the index and the index does not drive the company stocks so think about investing into individual companies than putting in all your money into the index. Have a balanced and diverse portfolio so that if one sector goes down it does not take you with it. You should look for companies with specific dogma and stories associated to it and not for the ones who are making money because the economy is getting better.
Long term investing
"Only buy something that you'd be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years."
~ Warren Buffett
Had you put $10,000 into Berkshire Hathaway when Buffett bought control of it in 1965, you'd have more than $50 million today, compared to the just under $500,000 you'd have if you'd invested in the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index. Again, remember companies make the index and not the vice versa.
You should not be concerned with the supply and demand intricacies of the stock market. (atleast I do not understand the complexity in the financial world) You don't have to monitor your stocks and portfolio everyday every minute. According to Warren Buffett: "In the short term the market is a popularity contest; in the long term it is a weighing machine."
Studying the Sage (Warren Buffett, an excerpt from an investing article about him by Investopedia http://www.investopedia.com/articles/01/071801.asp)
'He chooses stocks solely on the basis of their overall potential as a company - he looks at each as a whole. Holding these stocks as a long-term play, he seeks not capital gain but ownership in quality companies extremely capable of generating earnings. When Buffett invests in a company, he isn't concerned with whether the market will eventually recognize its worth; he is concerned with how well that company can make money as a business.'
Though that does not mean you simply put your money in some stock and completely forget about it for 10 years.
Lose some
"You get recessions, you have stock market declines. If you don't understand that's going to happen, then you're not ready, you won't do well in the markets."
~ Peter Lynch
Don't let optimism overwhelm you here. Sometimes the economy does go through a slump and believe me even we have to bear the brunt. Hence, you should (always) generally keep a stop loss. I generally keep a stop loss of 10%. For example, if I buy stock at the price of 100$ and if it continues to drop I sell it at 90$. Also, you should be able to sense the signs of mounting trouble associated with the particular stock. Watch out for the prognosticators,benefit and pull out accordingly. Safest way to invest would be to focus on companies that serve the middle class especially in maturing economies like India and China. You should pull the trigger if you see the following:
1. Poor fundamentals (earnings, revenues and cash flow)
2. Wall Street hype (look for the trends)
3. Falling return on capital ( gauge on how a company is using the shareholder's money)
4. Bearish bond analysts (follow their cues closely; when they raise concerns, heed them)
Functioning
"When somebody buys a stock it's because they think it's going to go up and the person who sold it to them thinks it's going to go down. Somebody's wrong."
~ George Ross
History is not destined to repeat itself every time. (although it definitely repeats itself when price movement trends for equity are concerned) Hence, it is very important to have a goal and investment strategy for putting in your hard earned money. Perhaps, one of the most important thing is to be well informed about things happening around you. Look out for the oil prices, global trade, the merger mania, revenue growth of a company, housing recession, growth in jobs and incomes/wages, the annual budgets, monsoon, economic and strategic pacts, booming industry scenario, Fed cuts, inflation rates, labor markets, foreign exchange reserves, India & China, quarterly results, IPO's, global warming, emerging markets, forecasters, global outlook ,etc. And, believe you me, if you play your cards well there is always a lot of room for profit growth.
Retrospect
And finally some thoughts from the most prudent investor,
“In the business world, the rear view mirror is always clearer than the windshield.”
~ Warren Buffett
This is one of my personal favs too.
Always learn from your mistakes and continue to rectify and work on them. It is proven that you become wiser after the event however when it involves your own money you need to get it right the first time around. If you are more focussed into putting your money in international companies look out for the global economic growth and the GDP for the country as well. Try and take some time to understand the fundamentals of the company besides the regular technical analysis. Our goal is to maximize our profits and minimize (or eliminate) our losses. We should be careful and smart while putting in our money. Think big, curb your enthusiasm for recovery and backup your investment decisions with some scrutiny of the company's financial performance. Here, is a list of things what the greatest stock market investor analyzes and looks for:
1. Has the company consistently performed well?
2. Has the company avoided excess debt?
3. Are profit margins high? Are they increasing?
4. How long has the company been public?
5. Do the company's products rely on a commodity?
6. Is the stock selling at a 25% discount to its real value?
Hopefully, by now you should have the cognizance of how the markets work besides apprehending the art of investing.
I hope you start and continue to and finally go on to make a fortune with some astute investments. Feel free to mail me for any further questions, suggestions and comments.
Wednesday, January 17, 2007
What Next ?
An article from LA times.
Napster in 1999. MySpace in 2004. YouTube in 2006. Experts from the tech community look ahead to the innovations that will change how we work, play and communicate in 2007.
You'll be back in control
STEVE BALLMER
Steve Ballmer is the chief executive of Microsoft Corp.
RIGHT NOW, I AM as excited by the prospects for technology-driven change as I've ever been. The impact of the Internet, e-mail and mobile phones has been so dramatic that people tend to think the digital revolution has already happened. I think it's just getting started.
Many technologies have the potential to catch fire, including Internet television, mobile video devices and even robots. New business-intelligence technologies will make sophisticated data analysis tools easy enough for anyone to use. New "digital rights" technology, which gives copyright holders more control over the distribution and reproduction of their work, will continue to transform the entertainment industry.
But when we look back in 10 years, it probably won't be a specific device or company that stands out. Instead, 2007 will be the year that unified communications technology helped us regain control of our information and our lives. Ironically, the proliferation of new technologies up until now has made communications harder, not easier.
In 2007, I believe that phone numbers and e-mail addresses will begin to give way to a single identity, and the desktop phone will merge with the PC and mobile phone. Messages will be routed to you on a device that will be smart enough to know whether you can be interrupted based on what you are doing and who the message is from. Instead of being ruled by e-mail and cellphones, we'll have control over when and how we can be reached, and by whom.
**
Where virtual meets real life
NED SHERMAN
Ned Sherman is chief executive and publisher of Digital Media Wire
THE TREND TO watch in 2007: Virtual worlds, one of the most populous of which is Second Life, a 3-D environment built and owned by its residents (currently about 2 million).
These digital playgrounds combine elements of social networking with aspects of a multiplayer online game. At Second Life's virtual marketplace, residents buy, sell and trade millions of dollars in digital goods. Even more fascinating from a business standpoint is that millions of dollars in real-world currency are being generated from the exchange of virtual dollars into hard cash.
A cottage industry is beginning to develop around virtual communities, with real-world businesses profiting from the sale of related goods and services. For instance, there's an e-commerce site that allows you to customize your "avatar" -- the persona you create for yourself on line -- and another company that puts together custom games for organizations that want to use Second Life for training and education.
Second Life may not grow to the scale of a MySpace or a YouTube, but it may be laying the groundwork for something that will.
**
Breakout acts
RAFAT ALI
Rafat Ali is the editor of paidContent.org
IT MAY NOT BE a service that catches our attention this year, but people -- specifically, the talent that will break out in the social media sites. Jessica "lonelygirl15" Rose, who got famous playing a fictional teenager on YouTube, was just the first. We will see online and mobile shows possibly breaking into the mainstream, and talent from these digital realms will have a big effect on how mainstream shows get developed.
**
Video Napster
KEVIN WERBACH
Kevin Werbach is an assistant professor of legal studies and business ethics at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and the organizer of the Supernova technology conference (supernova2007.com)
I EXPECT THAT in the next year, at least one file-sharing -- or "peer-to-peer" -- television service will hit the exponential growth curve of Napster, Skype and MySpace. YouTube woke up users to the Internet as a video platform, but because even a small video file can take up several megabytes, a centralized website such as YouTube needs to limit clips to a few minutes.
P2P applications make every recipient of a file also a potential server, distributing the load throughout the network. This is the technique Napster and Kazaa used to upend the music business. By leveraging the distributed power of the network, P2P video allows you to download and watch much larger programs more quickly than you could at a centralized website.
There are several candidates lined up to be the YouTube of P2P video. BitTorrent has content partnerships with major media companies. The Venice Project is being developed by the team that created Kazaa and Skype. Or the winner might be one of the fast-growing P2P video companies already operating in China, such as Xunlei and PPLive.
Not enough attention is being paid to these services because of the perception that YouTube has already "won" the Internet video war. But central video hosting was just one battle. P2P video will become too big to ignore.
**
Gaming as communication
CHRIS ANDERSON
Chris Anderson is the editor in chief of Wired magazine
I'M WILLING TO bet that 2007 is the year that somebody figures out how to make video advertising work in a YouTube world. And if I'm right, the TV industry is going to get very rocky, very fast.
I doubt that the same disruptive force will hit movies, however. The big-screen home-theater boom created a market for high-def films, and that factor-of-10 increase in downloading time bought Hollywood another five years or so to figure things out.
I also think that this will be a big year for video gamers, and not just because of the delightful game-play innovations of the Wii and the power of the Xbox 360. (I can't wait for Halo 3.) Equally important is the fact that all of the current generation consoles now have built-in Internet connections. Their role as a bridge from the Net to the TV isn't just a big deal for gaming, it's also potentially a breakthrough moment for online video of all sorts.
We knew gaming competed with television for time, but now we're learning that mainstream acceptance of networked gaming may also create the greatest competitor for the broadcast distribution model itself.
**
Memory to go
HANK BARRY
Hank Barry, lawyer, was chief executive of Napster
KISS YOUR laptop goodbye. Virtualization technologies are making it possible for all of us to move beyond personal computers.
Google and Microsoft are fighting over where you keep your "state" -- your operating system, your applications and all your files. Google wants you to keep it on the Internet; Microsoft wants you to keep it on your laptop.
Virtualization technologies have been used for years to improve the usefulness of big servers. They allow a computer to move quickly and seamlessly among different operating systems with different "stacks" of applications.
Applied to personal computers, though, virtualization could radically expand the portability of all your computer work. A company called Moka5 has a program that keeps a snapshot copy of your state at all times. There is no reason why you could not carry that copy with you on different media -- on a USB memory stick, on a cellphone or even an iPod -- wherever there is some memory. Wherever you take it, your software, your files and your operating system will be available to use on any computer.
This splits the difference in the fight over where you store your work. You are no longer bound to a particular piece of hardware -- and you also don't have to risk storing your stuff with a server-side provider such as Google.
More and more, you are in charge.
**
All computing, all the time
JOHN BROCKMAN
John Brockman is publisher and editor of Edge (edge.org)
WE WILL SEE migration of social applications as user-generated content moves to the WiFi environment. YouTube, MySpace and multi-user games will be available on hand-held devices, wherever you go. People will carry their digital assets much like their bacteria. Israeli tech guru Yossi Vardi calls it "continuous computing."
The nanotechnology world foreseen by K. Eric Drexler arrives in the form of MEMS, or microelectronic mechanical systems. Very inexpensive moving parts will be mass-produced like a semiconductor. But unlike semiconductors, they move. Useful for anything that employs moving parts.
Synthetic Biology pioneer George Church of Harvard University expects $3,000 personal genomics kits in stores.
"Pop Atheism" might include popular atheist TV and movie characters, professional athletes, political figures, etc. Look for the first billion-dollar IPO for the Web service that gets atheists together for "rituals," dating and political and business networking.
Rod Brooks, director of MIT's computer lab, is looking at new Web services aimed at the baby boomer age group, who realize that, in terms of IT use, they've been passed by, missing out on IM, text-messaging, MySpace, etc.
But don't put much stock in predictions. Consider that YouTube/MySpace/Napster didn't change the real world for most people very much. MySpace became TheirSpace and YouTube became TheirTube faster than you can say "2006."
Napster in 1999. MySpace in 2004. YouTube in 2006. Experts from the tech community look ahead to the innovations that will change how we work, play and communicate in 2007.
You'll be back in control
STEVE BALLMER
Steve Ballmer is the chief executive of Microsoft Corp.
RIGHT NOW, I AM as excited by the prospects for technology-driven change as I've ever been. The impact of the Internet, e-mail and mobile phones has been so dramatic that people tend to think the digital revolution has already happened. I think it's just getting started.
Many technologies have the potential to catch fire, including Internet television, mobile video devices and even robots. New business-intelligence technologies will make sophisticated data analysis tools easy enough for anyone to use. New "digital rights" technology, which gives copyright holders more control over the distribution and reproduction of their work, will continue to transform the entertainment industry.
But when we look back in 10 years, it probably won't be a specific device or company that stands out. Instead, 2007 will be the year that unified communications technology helped us regain control of our information and our lives. Ironically, the proliferation of new technologies up until now has made communications harder, not easier.
In 2007, I believe that phone numbers and e-mail addresses will begin to give way to a single identity, and the desktop phone will merge with the PC and mobile phone. Messages will be routed to you on a device that will be smart enough to know whether you can be interrupted based on what you are doing and who the message is from. Instead of being ruled by e-mail and cellphones, we'll have control over when and how we can be reached, and by whom.
**
Where virtual meets real life
NED SHERMAN
Ned Sherman is chief executive and publisher of Digital Media Wire
THE TREND TO watch in 2007: Virtual worlds, one of the most populous of which is Second Life, a 3-D environment built and owned by its residents (currently about 2 million).
These digital playgrounds combine elements of social networking with aspects of a multiplayer online game. At Second Life's virtual marketplace, residents buy, sell and trade millions of dollars in digital goods. Even more fascinating from a business standpoint is that millions of dollars in real-world currency are being generated from the exchange of virtual dollars into hard cash.
A cottage industry is beginning to develop around virtual communities, with real-world businesses profiting from the sale of related goods and services. For instance, there's an e-commerce site that allows you to customize your "avatar" -- the persona you create for yourself on line -- and another company that puts together custom games for organizations that want to use Second Life for training and education.
Second Life may not grow to the scale of a MySpace or a YouTube, but it may be laying the groundwork for something that will.
**
Breakout acts
RAFAT ALI
Rafat Ali is the editor of paidContent.org
IT MAY NOT BE a service that catches our attention this year, but people -- specifically, the talent that will break out in the social media sites. Jessica "lonelygirl15" Rose, who got famous playing a fictional teenager on YouTube, was just the first. We will see online and mobile shows possibly breaking into the mainstream, and talent from these digital realms will have a big effect on how mainstream shows get developed.
**
Video Napster
KEVIN WERBACH
Kevin Werbach is an assistant professor of legal studies and business ethics at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and the organizer of the Supernova technology conference (supernova2007.com)
I EXPECT THAT in the next year, at least one file-sharing -- or "peer-to-peer" -- television service will hit the exponential growth curve of Napster, Skype and MySpace. YouTube woke up users to the Internet as a video platform, but because even a small video file can take up several megabytes, a centralized website such as YouTube needs to limit clips to a few minutes.
P2P applications make every recipient of a file also a potential server, distributing the load throughout the network. This is the technique Napster and Kazaa used to upend the music business. By leveraging the distributed power of the network, P2P video allows you to download and watch much larger programs more quickly than you could at a centralized website.
There are several candidates lined up to be the YouTube of P2P video. BitTorrent has content partnerships with major media companies. The Venice Project is being developed by the team that created Kazaa and Skype. Or the winner might be one of the fast-growing P2P video companies already operating in China, such as Xunlei and PPLive.
Not enough attention is being paid to these services because of the perception that YouTube has already "won" the Internet video war. But central video hosting was just one battle. P2P video will become too big to ignore.
**
Gaming as communication
CHRIS ANDERSON
Chris Anderson is the editor in chief of Wired magazine
I'M WILLING TO bet that 2007 is the year that somebody figures out how to make video advertising work in a YouTube world. And if I'm right, the TV industry is going to get very rocky, very fast.
I doubt that the same disruptive force will hit movies, however. The big-screen home-theater boom created a market for high-def films, and that factor-of-10 increase in downloading time bought Hollywood another five years or so to figure things out.
I also think that this will be a big year for video gamers, and not just because of the delightful game-play innovations of the Wii and the power of the Xbox 360. (I can't wait for Halo 3.) Equally important is the fact that all of the current generation consoles now have built-in Internet connections. Their role as a bridge from the Net to the TV isn't just a big deal for gaming, it's also potentially a breakthrough moment for online video of all sorts.
We knew gaming competed with television for time, but now we're learning that mainstream acceptance of networked gaming may also create the greatest competitor for the broadcast distribution model itself.
**
Memory to go
HANK BARRY
Hank Barry, lawyer, was chief executive of Napster
KISS YOUR laptop goodbye. Virtualization technologies are making it possible for all of us to move beyond personal computers.
Google and Microsoft are fighting over where you keep your "state" -- your operating system, your applications and all your files. Google wants you to keep it on the Internet; Microsoft wants you to keep it on your laptop.
Virtualization technologies have been used for years to improve the usefulness of big servers. They allow a computer to move quickly and seamlessly among different operating systems with different "stacks" of applications.
Applied to personal computers, though, virtualization could radically expand the portability of all your computer work. A company called Moka5 has a program that keeps a snapshot copy of your state at all times. There is no reason why you could not carry that copy with you on different media -- on a USB memory stick, on a cellphone or even an iPod -- wherever there is some memory. Wherever you take it, your software, your files and your operating system will be available to use on any computer.
This splits the difference in the fight over where you store your work. You are no longer bound to a particular piece of hardware -- and you also don't have to risk storing your stuff with a server-side provider such as Google.
More and more, you are in charge.
**
All computing, all the time
JOHN BROCKMAN
John Brockman is publisher and editor of Edge (edge.org)
WE WILL SEE migration of social applications as user-generated content moves to the WiFi environment. YouTube, MySpace and multi-user games will be available on hand-held devices, wherever you go. People will carry their digital assets much like their bacteria. Israeli tech guru Yossi Vardi calls it "continuous computing."
The nanotechnology world foreseen by K. Eric Drexler arrives in the form of MEMS, or microelectronic mechanical systems. Very inexpensive moving parts will be mass-produced like a semiconductor. But unlike semiconductors, they move. Useful for anything that employs moving parts.
Synthetic Biology pioneer George Church of Harvard University expects $3,000 personal genomics kits in stores.
"Pop Atheism" might include popular atheist TV and movie characters, professional athletes, political figures, etc. Look for the first billion-dollar IPO for the Web service that gets atheists together for "rituals," dating and political and business networking.
Rod Brooks, director of MIT's computer lab, is looking at new Web services aimed at the baby boomer age group, who realize that, in terms of IT use, they've been passed by, missing out on IM, text-messaging, MySpace, etc.
But don't put much stock in predictions. Consider that YouTube/MySpace/Napster didn't change the real world for most people very much. MySpace became TheirSpace and YouTube became TheirTube faster than you can say "2006."
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